Weltraum Wetter

Solarwindgeschwindigkeit Solarwind-Magnetfelder Mittag 10.7cm Rauschfluss
Bt Bz

Aktualisierung

Aktualisierung

Aktualisierung
ALERT
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Issued: 2021-10-28 17.57 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2021 Oct 28 1740 UTC
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Issued: 2021-10-28 17.48 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2021 Oct 28 1745 UTC
Valid To: 2021 Oct 29 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

WARNING
Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Issued: 2021-10-28 17.47 UTC
Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Valid From: 2021 Oct 28 1635 UTC
Valid To: 2021 Oct 29 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.

ALERT
Proton Event 100MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1pfu
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-28 16.51 UTC
Proton Event 100MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1pfu
Begin Time: 2021 Oct 28 1635 UTC

Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-28 15.57 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2021 Oct 28 1532 UTC

Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-28 15.55 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2021 Oct 28 1517 UTC
Maximum Time: 2021 Oct 28 1535 UTC
End Time: 2021 Oct 28 1548 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.0
Location: S26W04
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-28 15.53 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2021 Oct 28 1529 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1263 km/s

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-28 15.36 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2021 Oct 28 1530 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-19 18.03 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2021 Oct 19 1759 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-19 17.48 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2021 Oct 19 1746 UTC
Valid To: 2021 Oct 20 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-19 06.01 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2021 Oct 19 0559 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-19 04.26 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2021 Oct 19 0425 UTC
Valid To: 2021 Oct 19 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-18 03.00 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2021 Oct 18 0259 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-18 02.51 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2021 Oct 18 0250 UTC
Valid To: 2021 Oct 18 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-17 19.47 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2021 Oct 17 1936 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-17 19.46 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2021 Oct 17 1945 UTC
Valid To: 2021 Oct 17 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-12 21.09 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 3945
Valid From: 2021 Oct 12 0003 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2021 Oct 13 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-12 14.31 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1613
Valid From: 2021 Oct 12 0200 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2021 Oct 12 2200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-12 14.29 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 3944
Valid From: 2021 Oct 12 0003 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2021 Oct 12 2200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-12 10.58 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2021 Oct 12 1052 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-12 10.24 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2021 Oct 12 1020 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-12 04.48 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2021 Oct 12 0447 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-12 04.38 UTC
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2021 Oct 12 0438 UTC
Valid To: 2021 Oct 12 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-12 04.05 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2021 Oct 12 0358 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-12 02.57 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2021 Oct 12 0257 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

SUMMARY
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-12 02.40 UTC
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2021 Oct 12 0230 UTC
Deviation: 33 nT
Station: WNG

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-12 01.57 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2021 Oct 12 0200 UTC
Valid To: 2021 Oct 12 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WARNING
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-12 01.55 UTC
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2021 Oct 12 0215 UTC
Valid To: 2021 Oct 12 0315 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2021 Oct 12 0147 UTC

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-12 00.56 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2021 Oct 12 0055 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-12 00.04 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2021 Oct 12 0003 UTC
Valid To: 2021 Oct 12 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-11 19.43 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Oct 12: G2 (Moderate) Oct 13: None (Below G1) Oct 14: None (Below G1)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-11 02.39 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 3942
Valid From: 2021 Oct 10 2220 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2021 Oct 11 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-10 22.38 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2021 Oct 10 2235 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-10 22.20 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2021 Oct 10 2220 UTC
Valid To: 2021 Oct 11 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-09 18.29 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Oct 10: None (Below G1) Oct 11: G2 (Moderate) Oct 12: G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-09 07.43 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2021 Oct 09 0705 UTC

Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-09 07.20 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2021 Oct 09 0630 UTC
Maximum Time: 2021 Oct 09 0648 UTC
End Time: 2021 Oct 09 0657 UTC
Duration: 27 minutes
Peak Flux: 430 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 92 sfu

Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-09 06.56 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2021 Oct 09 0633 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 608 km/s

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-03 05.52 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2021 Oct 03 0523 UTC
Maximum Time: 2021 Oct 03 0523 UTC
End Time: 2021 Oct 03 0523 UTC
Duration: 1 minutes
Peak Flux: 100 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 87 sfu

Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-02 10.31 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2021 Oct 02 1030 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-02 10.12 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2021 Oct 02 1011 UTC
Valid To: 2021 Oct 02 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-01 23.31 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 3939
Valid From: 2021 Sep 30 1830 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2021 Oct 02 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-01 11.13 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 3938
Valid From: 2021 Sep 30 1830 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2021 Oct 01 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Ausgestellt: 2021-10-01 02.34 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 3937
Valid From: 2021 Sep 30 1830 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2021 Oct 01 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Ausgestellt: 2021-09-30 20.25 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2021 Sep 30 2022 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Ausgestellt: 2021-09-30 18.22 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2021 Sep 30 1830 UTC
Valid To: 2021 Oct 01 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Ausgestellt: 2021-09-28 18.44 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Sep 29: None (Below G1) Sep 30: None (Below G1) Oct 01: G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Comment: G1 (Minor) storm conditions are likely with the arrival of a CME from 28 Sep.

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

CANCEL WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Ausgestellt: 2021-09-28 18.26 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Cancel Serial Number: 900
Original Issue Time: 2021 Sep 27 2040 UTC

Comment: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are no longer likely on 29 Sep.

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

CANCEL WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Ausgestellt: 2021-09-28 18.24 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Cancel Serial Number: 193
Original Issue Time: 2021 Sep 27 2035 UTC

Comment: Current solar wind observations suggest G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storms are not likely to occurr on 28 Sep.

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

Table

Datum Radio flux 10.7 cm SESC Sonnenflecken Anzahl Sonnenfleckenbereich 10E-6 Neue Region GOES15 X-ray Bkgd flux Lichtblitze
X-ray Optisch
C M X S 1 2 3
2021-09-28 89 57 80 2 * 1 0 0 4 0 0 0
2021-09-29 102 74 540 0 * 5 0 0 13 0 0 0
2021-09-30 95 46 410 0 * 1 0 0 9 0 0 0
2021-10-01 91 28 460 0 * 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
2021-10-02 87 25 380 0 * 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
2021-10-03 86 38 440 1 * 1 0 0 1 0 0 0
2021-10-04 84 29 410 0 * 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
2021-10-05 82 27 320 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2021-10-06 85 22 260 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2021-10-07 86 13 230 0 * 2 0 0 1 0 0 0
2021-10-08 92 13 240 0 * 2 0 0 4 0 0 0
2021-10-09 81 14 280 0 * 1 1 0 2 0 1 0
2021-10-10 85 38 300 2 * 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
2021-10-11 89 35 270 0 * 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
2021-10-12 84 26 280 0 * 0 0 0 4 0 0 0
2021-10-13 84 27 270 1 * 1 0 0 6 0 0 0
2021-10-14 83 24 260 0 * 2 0 0 1 0 0 0
2021-10-15 84 11 250 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2021-10-16 78 11 120 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2021-10-17 77 0 0 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2021-10-18 76 11 170 1 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2021-10-19 76 11 185 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2021-10-20 76 11 130 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2021-10-21 82 11 100 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2021-10-22 87 28 250 1 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2021-10-23 87 32 540 0 * 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
2021-10-24 93 46 570 1 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2021-10-25 101 81 470 2 * 3 0 0 1 0 0 0
2021-10-26 109 95 820 1 * 12 2 0 0 0 0 0
2021-10-27 111 91 660 0 * 18 0 0 5 3 0 0
1970-01-01
Mittelwert/Total 85 31 313 12 51 3 0 56 3 1 0

Übersichtsgrafik

Lichtblitze

Solar wind

Solar Wind

The solar wind is a stream of plasma released from the upper atmosphere of the Sun. It consists of mostly electrons, protons and alpha particles with energies usually between 1.5 and 10 keV. The stream of particles varies in density, temperature, and speed over time and over solar longitude. These particles can escape the Sun's gravity because of their high energy, from the high temperature of the corona and magnetic, electrical and electromagnetic phenomena in it.

The solar wind is divided into two components, respectively termed the slow solar wind and the fast solar wind. The slow solar wind has a velocity of about 400 km/s, a temperature of 1.4–1.6×10e6 K and a composition that is a close match to the corona. By contrast, the fast solar wind has a typical velocity of 750 km/s, a temperature of 8×10e5 K and it nearly matches the composition of the Sun's photosphere. The slow solar wind is twice as dense and more variable in intensity than the fast solar wind. The slow wind also has a more complex structure, with turbulent regions and large-scale structures.

Solar radio flux at 10.7 cm

Solar radio flux at 10.7 cm

The solar radio flux at 10.7 cm (2800 MHz) is an excellent indicator of solar activity. Often called the F10.7 index, it is one of the longest running records of solar activity. The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records. Reported in “solar flux units”, (s.f.u.), the F10.7 can vary from below 50 s.f.u., to above 300 s.f.u., over the course of a solar cycle.

Flares

Flares

A solar flare is a sudden flash of brightness observed over the Sun's surface or the solar limb, which is interpreted as a large energy release of up to 6 × 10e25 joules of energy. They are often, but not always, followed by a colossal coronal mass ejection. The flare ejects clouds of electrons, ions, and atoms through the corona of the sun into space. These clouds typically reach Earth a day or two after the event.

Solar flares affect all layers of the solar atmosphere (photosphere, chromosphere, and corona), when the plasma medium is heated to tens of millions of kelvin, while the electrons, protons, and heavier ions are accelerated to near the speed of light. They produce radiation across the electromagnetic spectrum at all wavelengths, from radio waves to gamma rays, although most of the energy is spread over frequencies outside the visual range and for this reason the majority of the flares are not visible to the naked eye and must be observed with special instruments. Flares occur in active regions around sunspots, where intense magnetic fields penetrate the photosphere to link the corona to the solar interior. Flares are powered by the sudden (timescales of minutes to tens of minutes) release of magnetic energy stored in the corona. The same energy releases may produce coronal mass ejections (CME), although the relation between CMEs and flares is still not well established.

The frequency of occurrence of solar flares varies, from several per day when the Sun is particularly "active" to less than one every week when the Sun is "quiet", following the 11-year cycle (the solar cycle). Large flares are less frequent than smaller ones.

Classification

Solar flares are classified as A, B, C, M or X according to the peak flux (in watts per square metre, W/m2) of 100 to 800 picometre X-rays near Earth, as measured on the GOES spacecraft.

Classification Peak Flux Range at 100-800 picometer
W/m2
A < 10e-7
B 10e-7 to 10e-6
C 10e-6 to 10e-5
M 10e-5 to 10e-4
X 10e-4 to 10e-3
Z > 10e-3

An earlier flare classification is based on Hα spectral observations. The scheme uses both the intensity and emitting surface. The classification in intensity is qualitative, referring to the flares as: (f)aint, (n)ormal or (b)rilliant. The emitting surface is measured in terms of millionths of the hemisphere and is described below. (The total hemisphere area AH = 6.2 × 1012 km2.)

Classification Corrected area
(millionths of hemisphere)
S < 100
1 100 - 250
2 250 - 600
3 600 - 1200
4 > 1200

Sunspot number

Sunspots

Sunspots are temporary phenomena on the photosphere of the Sun that appear visibly as dark spots compared to surrounding regions. They correspond to concentrations of magnetic field that inhibit convection and result in reduced surface temperature compared to the surrounding photosphere. Sunspots usually appear in pairs, with pair members of opposite magnetic polarity. The number of sunspots varies according to the approximately 11-year solar cycle.

Sunspot populations quickly rise and more slowly fall on an irregular cycle of 11 years, although significant variations in the number of sunspots attending the 11-year period are known over longer spans of time. For example, from 1900 to the 1960s, the solar maxima trend of sunspot count has been upward; from the 1960s to the present, it has diminished somewhat. Over the last decades the Sun has had a markedly high average level of sunspot activity; it was last similarly active over 8,000 years ago.

The number of sunspots correlates with the intensity of solar radiation over the period since 1979, when satellite measurements of absolute radiative flux became available. Since sunspots are darker than the surrounding photosphere it might be expected that more sunspots would lead to less solar radiation and a decreased solar constant. However, the surrounding margins of sunspots are brighter than the average, and so are hotter; overall, more sunspots increase the Sun's solar constant or brightness. The variation caused by the sunspot cycle to solar output is relatively small, on the order of 0.1% of the solar constant (a peak-to-trough range of 1.3 W/m2 compared to 1366 W/m2 for the average solar constant).

K-Indizes



Heute


0h
UTC
3h
UTC
6h
UTC
9h
UTC
12h
UTC
15h
UTC
18h
UTC
21h
UTC
0 1 0 0 0



Data


Estimated Planetary

Estimated Planetary

Datum A K-Indizes (UTC)
0h 3h 6h 9h 12h 15h 18h 21h
2021-09-29 5 1 0 1 2 2 1 2 1
2021-09-30 9 2 1 1 1 1 2 4 3
2021-10-01 15 3 3 4 4 4 2 2 0
2021-10-02 8 0 0 2 4 3 2 1 0
2021-10-03 6 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 2
2021-10-04 6 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 2
2021-10-05 5 2 3 1 0 1 1 0 1
2021-10-06 8 2 2 1 3 2 3 2 1
2021-10-07 5 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 0
2021-10-08 4 2 1 1 1 1 0 1 1
2021-10-09 5 2 2 2 2 2 1 0 1
2021-10-10 9 1 2 1 2 3 2 2 4
2021-10-11 13 3 3 3 2 2 1 3 3
2021-10-12 45 5 6 4 6 4 4 3 3
2021-10-13 6 3 2 2 0 1 1 0 0
2021-10-14 7 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 2
2021-10-15 6 2 2 2 2 0 0 1 2
2021-10-16 6 3 2 1 2 0 2 1 1
2021-10-17 10 0 1 1 3 2 2 4 3
2021-10-18 10 4 3 2 1 2 2 2 3
2021-10-19 14 3 4 2 2 2 4 4 2
2021-10-20 6 1 3 1 1 2 2 1 2
2021-10-21 7 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2
2021-10-22 4 1 0 1 1 2 1 1 2
2021-10-23 3 2 0 0 1 1 0 1 1
2021-10-24 4 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1
2021-10-25 5 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 1
2021-10-26 5 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 2
2021-10-27 3 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1
2021-10-28 2 0 1 0 0 0

Middle Latitude

Datum A K-Indizes
2021-09-29 4 0 0 1 2 2 1 2 2
2021-09-30 6 1 1 1 2 1 2 3 2
2021-10-01 13 2 3 4 3 4 2 2 0
2021-10-02 6 0 0 2 4 2 2 0 0
2021-10-03 6 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 2
2021-10-04 4 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 1
2021-10-05 6 3 3 1 0 1 1 1 1
2021-10-06 6 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 0
2021-10-07 3 1 2 1 0
2021-10-08 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 0
2021-10-09 4 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 0
2021-10-10 9 1 1 1 2 3 2 2 4
2021-10-11 15 3 3 4 3 2 1 2 4
2021-10-12 32 4 6 4 5 4 3 3 3
2021-10-13 5 3 2 2 0 1 1 1 0
2021-10-14 6 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 1
2021-10-15 4 2 2 2 0 1 0 2
2021-10-16 3 1 1
2021-10-17
2021-10-18 1 1
2021-10-19 9 2 2 2 1 2 3 3 2
2021-10-20 5 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 2
2021-10-21 9 1 3 2 2 2 2 3 2
2021-10-22 3 1 0 0 1 2 1 1 1
2021-10-23 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1
2021-10-24 2 0 1 1 0 1 2 1 0
2021-10-25 4 0 1 1 1 2 2 1 1
2021-10-26 3 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 2
2021-10-27 2 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0
2021-10-28 0 1 0 0 1

High Latitude

Datum A K-Indizes
2021-09-29 7 0 0 0 3 4 2 1 1
2021-09-30 6 2 0 1 1 1 2 3 2
2021-10-01 30 2 2 6 6 5 3 1 0
2021-10-02 31 0 0 2 7 6 3 1 1
2021-10-03 10 1 2 1 4 4 1 1 2
2021-10-04 3 2 1 2 2 0 0 0 0
2021-10-05 3 0 1 2 2 2 1 0 0
2021-10-06 23 0 1 2 6 5 4 3 0
2021-10-07 2 0 2 0 0
2021-10-08 2 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 0
2021-10-09 4 0 0 2 2 3 1 0 0
2021-10-10 15 0 0 0 4 4 5 2 2
2021-10-11 23 2 3 5 5 5 2 1 2
2021-10-12 60 4 5 6 7 6 6 3 2
2021-10-13 6 2 1 2 3 3 1 0 0
2021-10-14 11 1 1 2 4 4 3 1 1
2021-10-15 15 2 5 5 0 0 0 0
2021-10-16 0 0 0
2021-10-17
2021-10-18 6 1 2 2
2021-10-19 10 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 2
2021-10-20 3 1 1 0 0 2 2 1 1
2021-10-21 7 2 1 4 2 1 1 1 1
2021-10-22 2 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1
2021-10-23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
2021-10-24 3 0 0 0 2 2 1 1 0
2021-10-25 2 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0
2021-10-26 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
2021-10-27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2021-10-28 0 0 0 0 0

About

The K-index quantifies disturbances in the horizontal component of earth's magnetic field with an integer in the range 0–9 with 1 being calm and 5 or more indicating a geomagnetic storm. It is derived from the maximum fluctuations of horizontal components observed on a magnetometer during a three-hour interval. The label K comes from the German word Kennziffer meaning “characteristic digit”. The K-index was introduced by Julius Bartels in 1938.

The Estimated 3-hour Planetary Kp-index is derived at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center using data from the following ground-based magnetometers:

  • Sitka, Alaska
  • Meanook, Canada
  • Ottawa, Canada
  • Fredericksburg, Virginia
  • Hartland, UK
  • Wingst, Germany
  • Niemegk, Germany
  • Canberra, Australia

These data are made available thanks to the cooperative efforts between SWPC and data providers around the world, which currently includes the U.S. Geological Survey, Natural Resources Canada (NRCAN), the British Geological Survey, the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), and Geoscience Australia. Important magnetometer observations are also contributed by the Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris and the Korean Space Weather Center K-index Watches are issued when the highest predicted NOAA estimated Kp-indices for a day are K = 5, 6, 7, or >= 8 and is reported in terms of the NOAA G scale. K-index Warnings are issued when NOAA estimated Kp-indices of 4, 5, 6, and 7 or greater are expected. K-index Alerts are issued when the NOAA estimated Kp-indices reach 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9.


More info
Datenquelle: NOAA, Wikipedia

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